July offered another twist for housing market activity in what has been a volatile and sluggish year since the US tariff saga began in February. Last month there were 3,390 MLS sales in the Vancouver Region, up 2% month-over-month to mark the busiest month so far in 2025.
Real estate markets generally follow distinct seasonal patterns and there is very little precedent for July sales to outpace each of the first six months of the year. Looking at available data back to 2005, on only two occasions has this happened—in 2020 when sweeping pandemic lockdowns shuttered economic activity in the first half of the year, and in 2013, which turned out to be the busiest month for sales that year (in 2020, sales ultimately peaked in October). The uptick is a sign that more buyers are finding the comfort to transact after a tariff-driven collapse in consumer confidence drove sales in the first half of the year to their third-lowest level in at least two decades. Survey data from the Conference Board of Canada shows that consumer confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month in July after falling to a historic low in March.
Despite the relatively busy July, the pace of sales still fell well short of typical levels. Sales were down 3% from July 2024 and were 22% below the past 10-year July average of 4,323. Looking at board level data, the uptick in July was driven primarily by the Greater Vancouver area, where sales of 2,282 were up 4% month-over-month but still 18% below average. Meanwhile, in the Fraser Valley, sales of 1,108 were down 3% month-over-month and were a more substantial 29% below average. As for home types, all of the month-over-month gain was driven by a 9% increase in condo sales, while townhomes and detached homes were down 4% and 3%, respectively.
Looking at active listings, there were 25,739 across the Vancouver Region at the end of July, which resulted in the first month-over-month decline of the year. Still, inventory remained historically elevated, up 21% from the same time last year and 51% above the past 10-year July average of 17,025. That said, while that may be the landscape today, declining construction activity, especially for owner-occupied units, begs the question—are we headed for tighter supply conditions in the years ahead?
Data from CMHC shows that through the first six months of the year there were 12,770 housing starts in Metro Vancouver, the second consecutive yearly decline and an 11% decrease from the same time last year. This comes at a time when the CMHC’s own estimates say that the region would need to increase annual housing starts by 30% and hold them there for the next 10 years if we want to return affordability conditions to 2019 levels by 2035. What’s more, the disparity between owner-occupied and rental starts shows much sharper weakness in the ownership market. Owner-occupied starts of 8,070 through June were down 11% year-over-year and were 19% below their long-run average. Meanwhile, rental starts of 4,700 were down 10% year-over-year but were 38% above average.